Posted by
Brian Norton on Tuesday, December 23, 2008 12:51:19 AM
The Daily Reckoning Australia newsletter of today is kind of short but what really got my attention
was short term treasury bonds trading at a negative yield. In other
words, they cost more to buy than they are worth when redeemed at full
maturity, which is completely unprecedented. Apparently, traders think
that US bonds are the best place to put one's money, even at a negative
yield (guess they figure it just loses money less rapidly??!?) If I was
an investing man and had any money, small problem that, no money, I
would have gone short on oil in July and had money but alas that trade
is gone, and oil has very little room left to go lower and no
fundamentals for a rapid increase near term. Matter of fact it lost
another $6 a barrel after OPEC swore on everything but the Bible that it
was going to cut production by up to 2 million barrels per day last week.
Kind of like the stock market after Bernecke, Paulson and co. pushed
the funds rate to zero, small rise and then the continuing plummet.
The perceived reality is nobody has enough cred for the market to have
a lasting faith in, and things are not even close to being unwound yet.
Think the housing bubble is bad, wait until the commercial paper starts
to shred. Oh and BTW, AP asked the largest banks, you know, the
billion dollar bailout babies, what they did with our money, and they
either said they did not know or they refused to tell. We do know they
have been doing everything BUT what the purpose of the money was
intended for, which was lending it to people so they could buy some
of those repossessed houses. What to do, short of applying for a
bailout? I would probably buy some gold futures on pullbacks (gold is even for 2008 if you can believe it, after hundreds of dollar per ounce price swings! But further
into the deleveraging/deflation cycle I would start looking at gold
stocks on producers, like Newmont gold for example, because they will
be bargain basement price after the stock crunch and cost less to buy with higher upside return than physical gold), and do option puts
(selling a commodity short) on overpriced commodities like copper,
uranium etc that are going to crash and burn as manufacturing plummets.
The same holds for stocks, one can sell short a company stock, so if
you do reverse analysis and look for the weakest of the major players
in a sector or industry, you can make money on their way down. The real
problem, as these authors note, is that everything seems so obvious
that everybody KNOWS what has to happen in the markets. (which is the
sure sign to run the other way, or at least wonder why all lemmings
love cliffs...) The real kicker is the timing..., just ask me as I was
right on the direction of every trade I made but lost my money because
of timing, usually by being too early into a trade. I really think in
the short term gold, and gold stocks, are going to take a hit also,
perhaps down to the $600 range before the deleveraging is done and
inflation kicks in. One thought I want to leave with you as an
investing strategy these people don't talk about, and that is you can
make money when companies and commodities are going down, not just when
they are going up, so your asset management strategy does not have to
be solely preservation. You can recoup your nest egg now and watch for
the change in gold and other commodities when the inflation spike
comes, which will be more rapid than the oil spike and slump was, in my
opinion. I just think deflation is going to continue for the next few
months and any money you can spare is better placed on strategic short
bets.