The Daily Reckoning Australia newsletter of today is kind of short but what really got my attention was  short term treasury bonds trading at a negative yield. In other words, they cost more to buy than they are worth when redeemed at full maturity, which is completely unprecedented. Apparently, traders think that US bonds are the best place to put one's money, even at a negative yield (guess they figure it just loses money less rapidly??!?) If I was an investing man and had any money, small problem that, no money, I would have gone short on oil in July and had money but alas that trade is gone, and oil has very little room left  to go lower and no fundamentals for a rapid increase near term. Matter of fact it lost another $6 a barrel after OPEC swore on everything but the Bible that it was going to cut production by up to 2 million barrels per day last week. Kind of like the stock market after Bernecke, Paulson and co. pushed the funds rate to zero, small rise and then the continuing plummet. The perceived reality is nobody has enough cred for the market to have a lasting faith in, and things are not even close to being unwound yet. Think the housing bubble is bad, wait until the commercial paper starts to shred.  Oh and BTW, AP asked the largest banks, you know, the billion dollar bailout babies, what they did with our money, and they either said they did not know or they refused to tell. We do know they have been doing everything BUT what the purpose of the money was intended for, which was lending it to people so they could  buy  some of those repossessed houses. What to do, short of applying for a bailout?  I would probably buy some gold futures on pullbacks (gold is even for 2008 if you can believe it, after hundreds of dollar per ounce price swings! But further into the deleveraging/deflation cycle I would start looking at gold stocks on producers, like Newmont gold for example, because they will be bargain basement price after the stock crunch and cost less to buy with  higher upside  return than physical gold), and do option puts (selling a commodity short) on overpriced commodities like copper, uranium etc that are going to crash and burn as manufacturing plummets. The same holds for stocks, one can sell short a company stock, so if you do reverse analysis and look for the weakest of the major players in a sector or industry, you can make money on their way down. The real problem, as these authors note, is that everything seems so obvious that everybody KNOWS what has  to happen in the markets. (which is the sure sign to run the other way, or at least wonder why all lemmings love cliffs...) The real kicker is the timing..., just ask me as I was right on the direction of every trade I made but lost my money because of timing, usually by being too early into a trade. I really think in the short term gold, and gold stocks,  are going to take a hit also, perhaps down to the $600 range before the deleveraging is done and inflation kicks in. One thought I want to leave with you as an investing strategy these people don't talk about, and that is you can make money when companies and commodities are going down, not just when they are going up, so your asset management strategy does not have to be solely preservation. You can recoup your nest egg now and watch for the change in gold and other commodities when the inflation spike comes, which will be more rapid than the oil spike and slump was, in my opinion. I just think deflation is going to continue for the next few months and any money you can spare is better placed on strategic short bets. 

Hi Eric been reading your blog on liberal blogs and violence, either you are a more patient man than me or have a lot thicker skin, as I have never tried to reason with those of rabid tongue and mind in their own pits. About your assertion that we will not, as conservatives, retaliate as in a tooth for a tooth, I am not so sure. The problem is a matter of our survival. As long as conservatives could feel that this too shall pass, People of the Book type morality allowed  the turning of the other cheek. God would avenge your wrongs and all that. However, we are entering a period of history where the liberal left is unhinged enough to try exterminating conservative thought ( and any conservative not willing to change affiliation) quicker than you can say "burn'em!" Von Clausewitz stated that the only way to defeat an enemy is to be willing to use the same tactics against them that they employ ( or worse), because to deny your forces a tactic out of moral qualms may well lead to the annihilation of your nation. Machiavelli stated that it is better to be feared than loved, and conservatives have gotten where they are because they would rather be loved than be in power. We are in a war for the soul  and destiny of our nation, and liberals (even though a lot of them do not believe in souls, bless their grinchy hearts) know this truth and act on it. Conservatives really cannot comprehend the depravity and depth of hatred liberals have for them, but viewed through the lens of an eternal warfare between good and evil, it makes perfect sense why they hate us so much. Lucifer, the son of the morning, was cast out of heaven for wanting the glory of the Father. His pride caused his fall, and now he wishes nothing more than to damn those who did not follow him and were deprived of a mortal experience. We got bodies and eventual resurrection, he and his followers do not. He hates righteousness, and all that is good (of God). Liberals are cut from the same cloth, because when you get right down to it, they either have deluded themselves about what they really believe in (IE they are conservatives but do not realize it yet, which is what I hope is the case with your girlfriend:-)), or they are actively fighting against God, because basic liberal tenets like abortion, gay rights, moral relativism, etc, cannot be squared with a God of laws and justice. Liberalism and God are diametrically opposed, when both are properly understood. Both Old and New Testaments talk about those who shall be sheep in wolves clothing, speaking the words of life but murdering men's souls. Now,  I want to make clear  that even though I am speaking from a scriptural standpoint, God works on the ground, so to speak. I am talking of realpolitik, a pragmatic assessment of what the path ahead is. The scriptures tell what will happen, I try to understand and be prepared, so I and my family may not fear. What I am trying to say is too many religious people are so blinded by this idea of turning the other cheek they forget the war history of the Jews under a wrathful God, the moneychangers in the Temple, the Sodom's of the world, and yes, even the Flood. It is not only just to act in defense of right, it is eventually required of all those who honor God. The imagery in Isaiah of Israel going through as a young lion among the wicked, sparing none, is not a pacifistic  one, nor of mercy either. Either we beat the liberals brutally and convincingly now  in the law, the ballot box, and the court of public opinion, or we  will be forced to do it later in the streets. Evil cannot co-exist with good, it can only be restrained and chained down to where it does the least harm: But let loose unrestrained on a supine and ungodly citizenry as we now have, the destruction of good  is the sure result. Liberals have through the Prop 8 fiasco shown themselves incapable of being governed by law (and as you noted, not one liberal is willing to call the gay activists down and discipline them), so the more their will is thwarted, the more violent they will become, until they either achieve their designs or they are met with sufficient pain to be persuaded of their folly. They are bullies, and spoiled fools whose bad manners have been tolerated far too long. Truly the Word is: Spare the rod, spoil the child (and ruin the nation). 

Ahhhh. Chicago! Gangsters, druggies, rappers, 8-mile road, convicted felons, politicians (but I repeat myself), and the ONE, even Obama or as Jonah put it, "hero-saint light-worker Jedi Knight Messiah that he is..., who can pick up manure from the clean end". How he can be elected in Daley's wonderland and remain clean is like expecting a girl at one of Nevada's "ranches" to be a virgin, it just defies logic and common sense. Yet, most of what the MSM passes for news these days has no relation to common sense either, being more like the dirty end of manure. Once the bulldog gets through with the Gov'ner and running down the who did what and knew it when, I expect Libby's memory will look pretty good to all of the Democratic politicians involved in this mess. And I will wager there will be a lot more felony convictions than the one throwaway Libby had to take a fall for. Blago has no incentive to be quiet about possible Obama malfeasance  as he is tossed under the bus, for  even he cannot be stupid enough to think Obama would pardon him, altho he was stupid enough to keep making plans to sell the Senate seat after knowing his phone was wiretapped.... It will be interesting what the MSM and other news outlets come up with over the next week or two(or if the MSM even tries). Like Buchanan said today, this one is not going away, there are too many questions  unanswered. Why oh why, does a seemingly intelligent man like Obama have such bleeping bad associates? I really think he should start being judged by the company he kept. Perhaps we are too parsimonious with our blame here, though, because after all, the voters in Illinois DO keep voting for this type of scum. I think Doug Giles is right, some people really should not be allowed to vote.

I have read quite a bit on both sides of the argument about how Obama is going to govern, and I am not totally convinced even he knows. From the time he sprang onto the national stage two years ago, he has been the epitome of pragmatism. Nothing has been too large, or sacred, to "throw under the bus" if it seemed to imperil his chances to gain the Presidency. Does that mean he has no guiding star other than power, or that he is truly an astute politician, one of the most stellar practitioners of rhetorical chicanery in modern history? By the way, I do not mean the forgoing in a positive light. Obama is not a typical liberal, in that he is not wedded to any one tenet of the liberal cause, except abortion, and even then there was no real challenge to call him on it(the partial birth fiasco ran more on whether he lied, not the substance of what he was espousing). Faced with an enraged electorate, I think he would have thrown his opposition to the "born-alive" bill under the bus too. So what does this have the do with Charles' column? Just that Obama has dreams, but when they meet reality, as his "withdraw from Iraq immediately!" met the NSA daily briefings, the dreams change to pragmatism. His vision of America is probably not that shared by most Townhall readers, but his ability to effectively Change what he Hoped to...? Pragmatically, it's not gonna happen.

Subject: Post election and back to policies:-)  my comment to George Will column on 12-11-08
Nice to see the minds functioning again instead of flamethrowers (not that it wasn't fun to be ascerbic about liberals sometimes...) I agree that Pakistan and Afganistan are unwinnable by outside forces  (without, as earlier noted, a Genghis mentality), and interior schisms between tribes and religions make any national government with real authority extremely unlikely. So, why are we involved? Simply because to not be involved carries far worse possibilities to our national security. We may not have much leverage, but we do at least have some, as well as intelligence assets on the ground and in the respective governments. The islamic nations worry us because of oil, and terrorism, but strategically they are backwards, insular nations. They have many smart, highly talented people, but the ruling regimes are so removed economically from the masses they might as well be different nations, which is why Osama and Wahabbism represent a more fundamental threat to the Gulf Arabic nations than to our own. The terrorists may blow some of our landmarks up, but they cannot destroy our culture and throw us back, as a nation, to the middle ages, as they can Saudi Arabia, Quatar, et al, because we do not have a majority of citizens in grinding poverty being radicalized by religious imams while our rulers live  life large.
The real intractable problem on the world's stage is Pakistan/India, because of profound religious differences going back 60 years to the partition of the nation into a Muslim and Hindu homeland. They have been fighting over Kashmir for literally decades, both have nuclear weapons( which is the reason I say they are  worse than Israel/Arabs, because only Israel currently has the bomb, whereas both these countries do, and sophisticated delivery systems), and large populations of very poor cannon fodder the elites would not hesitate to expend in the name of national interest. Plus, we really do not possess the mental toughness and pragmatism to negotiate with any of these nations, so we should not even pretend we can unless we are willing to be effective in our negotiations(which requires more than throwing money around). Pakistan came around into our camp not because of our words, but because of what we did to the Taliban in Afganistan. Piecemeal, and nuanced, approaches do not work in that region of the world, so we need to go in to win decisively, or stay out. Since staying out is not an option at this stage, winning is the only way left. Unless, of course, we want to go the way of France and Britain, appease our way into obscurity and Sharia law eradicating our national identity. Perhaps that is really where I feel Gates and the rest of these oh so experienced people (BTW if they are so experienced and have been around for 40 years, why are we stilling having these problems?) miss the boat, they are focused primarily on the physical insurgency of the islamic radicals, and not realizing that national security must in  large part be based on defeating the ideology. We are a Christian nation and have no business adopting Sharia compliant financing, foot baths, clean foods, or any other politically correct genuflucting to Islam, let alone refusing to criticize radical Islamic terrorists because it might hurt their feelings! Wipe the terrorists  from the face of the earth so they can go enjoy their 70 promised virgins, and let us move on with the task of getting along with the "moderate" muslims of the world.  What our political classes tell us in the name of diversity we must do, is  in fact aiding and abetting our enemy in their efforts to destroy our culture and way of life. Multiculturalism is, indeed, the murdering of our culture, as noted by a previous post to Will‘s TH column.